Iran's clerical establishment has made it clear that it will not condone the insubordination that marked the country's last presidential contest, and has taken steps over the interim to ensure the 2013 election goes as planned.

Touting the importance of a "peaceful" vote on June 14, officials have said in recent months that "sedition," a term they use to refer to the mass demonstrations that followed the 2009 election and the political forces that organized them, will not be tolerated.

Any semblance of political opposition has been marginalized or eliminated since the last vote, with prominent opposition leaders Mehdi Karrubi and Mir Hussein Musavi under house arrest, and reformist parties banned.

Warnings were also directed toward the "deviant current" -- a term used to describe the close circle around President Mahmud Ahmadinejad.

The outgoing president's preferred successor, Esfandiari Mashaei, was taken out of the running this week by the powerful Guardians Council, which approves the final list of candidates.

Likewise, the proposed candidacy of former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a pillar of the establishment who gave some support to the opposition camp following the controversial 2009 election, was denied.

Should anyone object, the regime has a number of tools at its disposal to hammer home its message, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the Intelligence Ministry, and the Basij militia.

"Due to the preparedness of intelligence bodies and security forces, the events that took place in 2009, will not be repeated," Ahmadi Moghadam, Iran's Police chief, said in comments reported by the ISNA news agency on May 22.

'A Decisive Response'

Hossein Aryan a U.K. based military and security expert, shed some light on what Moghadam was referring to.

"In pursuit of [their] aim, [the authorities] have been quite active in terms of gathering information, gathering intelligence, and preparing themselves for likely unrest following the election or before that," he said. "In doing that, as it has been practiced in the past, the IRGC has been using its intelligence wing and also the paramilitary force Basij to gather information."

Intelligence Minister Heydar Moslehi, on the sidelines of an April 9 cabinet meeting, said no mercy would be shown to anyone -- domestic or foreign -- who tries to disrupt the election.

"Certain groups and streams, as well as intelligence agencies from outside the country, may intend to take action to create problems for us," the semiofficial Fars news agency quoted him as saying. "And if this happens they will meet with a decisive response."

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Moslehi said heavy monitoring was being conducted to prevent possible seditionist moves.

Also in April, IRGC Intelligence officer Mohammad Javad Khoshnavaz said the corps was eyeing the "enemy's movements" carefully. "We are ready to intelligently counter a new sedition," he said, while expressing the hope that new protests would not take place.

This week, Colonel Rasool Sanaeirad, who heads the IRGC's political office, was quoted by Fars as saying that the election would be "unpredictable," and warning that a "possible riot" could spread from Tehran to other regions of the country.

Underlining the efforts to prevent such unrest, Iranian media this month published pictures of a training maneuver held in Tehran on May 14 by a unit affiliated with the IRGC.

The "Ale Mohammad Security brigade" was shown engaging in what appeared to be mock street battles against rioters, adding to similar exercises carried out in the capital since the 2009 protests.

Disrupting News And Information

There are signs that the Iranian authorities are also attempting to hamper Iranians' ability to obtain and send news and information.

In recent weeks, Iranian authorities have disrupted the use of most circumvention and privacy tools that allow users to bypass state-imposed Internet filtering already in place.

On May 10, Mohammad Saleh Jokar, a member of the parliamentary committee of national security and foreign policy, said the government would block attempts to "instigate people as we witnessed in 2009," according to the Cairo's "Al-Ahram Online."

Washington D.C.-based researcher Collin Anderson believes Iran will maintain a slow and heavily filtered Internet connectivity.

"What they try to do is have as much control as possible without collateral damage or economic cost," he said. "So I think that, if they feel for the most part they can cut off the things that they don’t want people going to -- such as independent media or international broadcasters or social networks -- that [those people] won't feel compelled to."

Pressure on the press intensified several months ago, with the January arrest of more than a dozen journalists from at least six media outlets. Intelligence Minister Moslehi said the arrests were an attempt to "prevent the emergence of sedition prior to the elections."

More recently, the "Kalame” news outlet reported this month that the Intelligence Ministry had summoned the editors of newspapers and instructed them about "red lines" they shouldn’t cross in their election coverage.

Among the no-no's listed by the opposition website were interpreting the supreme leader's comments and presenting a dark picture of the situation in the country.

"Kalame" also reported that the Intelligence Ministry had given its approval to criticism of Ahmadinejad.

RFE/RL's Guide To Iran's Presidential Election

Reza Moini, an Iran expert with the French media watchdog Reporters Without Borders, suggested that other methods to constrain the media are also being employed.

"The pressure includes, according to our information, the summoning, interrogation, and arrest of journalists and also threats against them," he said. "We also have information that some journalists have recently been sent into internal exile, meaning that [the authorities] have forced some journalists to leave Tehran or other cities where they work."

The formation of a new election-monitoring unit called Fajr has also been announced, with the task of monitoring satellite networks, opposition websites, and social-networking sites.

In late April, Deputy Culture Minister Mohammad Jafar Mohammadzadeh said that the surveillance of media would increase in the run-up to June 14.

"We are of course hoping that the press will also have greater self-control and publish the news responsibly," Mohammadzadeh was quoted by Fars as saying.

The decision by Iran’s powerful Guardians Council to bar former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani from running in next month's presidential election paves the way for the country’s establishment to bring a loyalist to power.

It also deals another blow to the credibility of the June 14 poll, analysts say.

With his potential appeal to both reformists and conservatives, Rafsanjani was considered a major challenge to the establishment’s plans to hold a “peaceful” election and replace the unruly President Mahmud Ahmadinejad with an obedient, hard-line figure loyal to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Hard-liners had attacked the 78-year-old Rafsanjani over his age and past support for the opposition Green Movement, and had called on the Guardians Council to disqualify him.

His elimination, analysts say, is another indication of the increasingly authoritarian nature of the Islamic republic, where the circle of power has been steadily shrinking.    

The pragmatic Rafsanjani has spent decades as one of the country’s key figures and held some of its top posts. He currently heads the Expediency Council, which mediates between the parliament and the Guardians Council.

Nevertheless his positions on many issues that have not been in line with the establishment are seen as a threat, according to Alireza Nader, a senior analyst at the Rand Corporation.

“The Guardians Council’s decision does show that Rafsanjani, who is considered to be a pillar of the revolution in Iran and a founder of the Islamic republic, faces a lot of opposition from within the political system. It also indicates how authoritarian and closed the Islamic republic has become as a political system -- so much so that Rafsanjani, one of the key figures, is not allowed to run for president," Nader explained.

ALSO READ: RFE/RL's Guide To Iran's Presidential Elections

New York-based Iranian journalist Roozbeh Mirebrahimi believes the banning of Rafsanjani from the June 14 vote marks a turning point for the Islamic republic.

“I think this is the most significant elimination, conducted by Khamenei’s team, of the current that support the thoughts of the founder of the Islamic republic, Ayatollah Khomeini. Even if the decision is overturned [through an intervention by Khamenei], the fact that this was allowed to happen demonstrates that Khamenei cannot tolerate even someone like Rafsanjani,” Mirebrahimi said.

While the decision to ban Rafsanjani came as something of a surprise, the decision to ban Ahmadinejad’s right-hand man, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, was widely expected. 

Mashaei, who has been accused of undermining the clergy, was quoted by the semiofficial hard-line news agency FARS as saying that he will appeal to Khamenei.

Rafsanjani did not have an immediate reaction to the Guardians Council’s decision.

His elimination will disappoint many Iranians who considered him the only acceptable option in next month’s vote.

Mehrzad Boroujerdi, director of Middle East studies at Syracuse University, says the decision to disqualify Rafsanjani is likely to deepen the gap between the establishment and parts of the population.

"It could lead to an increasing alienation of some parts of the society from the regime, more than the past. Those who came to the streets four years ago were met by force, and now they will feel that there is no likable candidate for them to vote for. I think we will witness a political dissociation between these segments of the society and the establishment,” Boroujerdi predicted.

ALSO READ: Rafsanjani, Ahmadinejad Ally Barred From Iran Election

Ahead of the Interior Ministry’s announcement on May 21 of its list of approved candidates, parliamentarian Ali Motahari warned that excluding Rafsanjani would bring the very principles of the Islamic establishment into question.

And Ayatollah Haeri Shirazi, a member of the Assembly of Experts, warned in an open letter to Khamenei that the disqualification of “prominent” figures would damage the vote.

Boroujerdi says the Iranian establishment apparently decided that the fallout from banning Rafsanjani would be less costly than letting him compete in the election.

“In politics, any decision comes with a price. The coming of Rafsanjani would have had a price, and his disqualification also brings problems; [the authorities] had to weigh and see, with regard to their long term interests, which price they were willing to pay,” Boroujerdi explained.

The Guardians Council approved a total of eight candidates for next month’s presidential poll, with nuclear negotiator Said Jalili considered one of the leading contenders.

Two moderate figures were also allowed to run: former nuclear negotiator Hassan Rohani, who is close to Rafsanjani, and former Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref, who held his post under former reformist President Mohammad Khatami.

Recent comments by members Iran’s Guardians Council, the hard-line oversight body that vets all election candidates, have raised doubt that former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani will be allowed to run in the June 14 presidential election.

Hard-liners loyal to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei consider the 78-year-old Rafsanjani a serious threat because of his appeal to both reformists and conservatives.

They have criticized Rafsanjani for his age, his past criticism of the government’s 2009 postelection crackdown, and his personal wealth.

Even before he announced his surprise candidacy earlier this month, Khamenei loyalists had said that Rafsanjani should not run because of his advanced age.

Then, on May 20, Guardians Council spokesman Abbas Ali Kadkhodayi said candidates who are physically weak will not be allowed to stand in the vote.

"If an individual who plans to take up a high and executive post can only work a few hours per day, naturally he cannot be confirmed," Khadkhodayi said in an interview with Iran’s Al-Alam television channel.

Khadkhodayi did not mention Rafsanjani by name but his comments -- made just hours before the council is set to issue the final list of approved candidates -- were widely interpreted as a hint that the former president will be disqualified.

Indeed, there are rumors that Rafsanjani's candidacy has already been rejected.

The conservative Alef website, which is said to be affiliated with lawmaker Ahmad Tavakoli, claimed that Rafsanjani is on the verge of disqualification.

"Alef has heard that the majority of the members of the Guardians Council believe that Rafsanjani is not qualified to run," the website said. "Of course, the report has not yet been officially confirmed."

'Modest Lifestyle'

Lawmaker Ali Motahari reacted to the increasing speculation by saying that Rafsanjani's disqualification would "bring the very principles of the Iranian establishment into question" because the former president played the "biggest role" in Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Rafsanjani currently heads the Expediency Council, which mediates between parliament and the Guardians Council.

“If the [members] of the Guardians Council have made a final decision to disqualify Rafsanjani from running, they are playing a dangerous game, the end of which is not clear, and it is not in the interests of the establishment," Motahari told reporters.

Motahari, who campaigned for Rafsanjani to run, added that criticism of "some issues" by the former president should not lead to his disqualification.

And he appeared to suggest that Rafsanjani is fit enough to be president, asking, "How do they know that Rafsanjani doesn't have the physical strength to run the country?"

The Guardians Council’s comment is just the latest line of attack against Rafsanjani. In recent days, his automobile has also come in for scrutiny by hard-liners.

Last week, Guardians Council Chairman Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati said Iran's next president should not drive a Mercedes.

Rafsanjani arrived to register for the June 14 vote in a blue Mercedes. A few hard-line websites immediately compared it to the subcompact Kia Pride in which another presidential hopeful, top nuclear negotiator Said Jalili, arrived at the same office.

Without naming the former president, Jannati told worshipers in a May 17 sermon that the next president should have a modest lifestyle and should not drive a Mercedes.

"He must lead a simple life," Jannati said. "He should start with himself -- if his clothing is simple, his house is simple, his furniture is simple, he can expect others to have a simple life. In other words, he can't go around in a Mercedes, have such a house and furniture, and expect people to live modestly."

Motahari criticized those comments as an attempt at "demagoguery" and said he didn’t think Rafsanjani’s Mercedes was more expensive than Jannati’s Peugeot.

On May 20, he suggested that Ayatollah Khamenei could step in if Rafsanjani is being considered for disqualification.

"Even though the Guardians Council has the final vote, the leader could step in by issuing a state ruling," he told reporters.

The Guardians Council is set to present its list of candidates to the Interior Ministry on May 21. The ministry then has until May 23 to declare the final names.

Iran's car saga continues.

Conservative lawmaker Ali Motahari has criticized recent comments by hard-line cleric Ahmad Jannati suggesting what kind of car Iran's next president should -- or shouldn't -- drive.

Motahari described the remarks by Jannati, who chairs the powerful Guardians Council that's charged with vetting candidate applications -- as illogical, adding that the intent was "demagoguery."

"[Jannati] says people should not vote for those who ride around in a Mercedes, while some officials ride a Mercedes because of the assessment of their security team," Motahari said.

Without naming former President and applicant for the June presidential race Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Jannati told worshipers in a Friday sermon that the next president should lead a simple life and not drive around in a Mercedes.

Rafsanjani's blue Mercedes came under hard-liner scrutiny after he arrived in it to register for the June 14 presidential vote. Websites contrasted it with a subcompact Kia Pride that another presidential hopeful, top nuclear negotiator Said Jalili, rode in to the same registration office.

Motahari claimed the Mercedes cars that Iranian officials use are often 20 or 30 years old and thus worth about as much as a Pride.

"I don't think Rafsanjani's Mercedes is more expensive than Jannati's Peugeot," Motahari, who had reportedly campaigned for Rafsanjani to run, said.

In response to a question about whether Jannati's comments mean that the Guardians Council is taking steps to disqualify Rafsanjani and prevent him from running, Motahari seemed to suggest that a Friday Prayers sermon was an unsuitable venue for the chairman to be hinting at a council decision.

"If he is taking [such] steps, why does he announce it during Friday Prayers -- well, he should take those steps in their own place," Motahari said.

The Guardians Council has until May 21 to announce the shortlist of presidential candidates cleared to run in next month's presidential elections, culling from a long list of applicants.

-- Golnaz Esfandiari

The luxury automobile of Iranian ex-President and current presidential hopeful Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani is once again the focus of hard-line attention in connection with next month's vote.

As we reported last week, such websites recently posted compare-and-contrast-style images of Rafsanjani's bright blue Mercedes next to the Kia subcompact of another presidential hopeful, top nuclear negotiator Said Jalili, after the two registered almost simultaneously for the vote. Jalili's model, a Pride, is among the most common of cars in Iran and has a decidedly working-class image attached to it.

On May 17, hard-line cleric Ahmad Jannati, the chairman of the powerful Guardians Council that vets all election candidates, said without naming Rafsanjani that the country's next president should lead a simple life. He added that such a man (for female candidates appear to be excluded) shouldn't ride around in a Mercedes.

"He must lead a simple life. He should start with himself -- if his clothing is simple, his house is simple, his furniture is simple, he can expect others to have a simple life. In other words, he can't go around in a Mercedes, have such a house and furniture, and expect people to live modestly," Jannati said during his Friday Prayers sermon in the capital, Tehran.

He also said that the president should have management skills, fight corruption, and take a stand against "sedition," a term that hard-liners use to refer to the mass street protests against the reelection of President Mahmud Ahmadinejad in 2009 and the resulting Green opposition movement.

Modesty is considered a virtue among Iranian leaders, who all claim to lead very simple lives.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has also said that the country's president should be a man of the people who leads a modest life.

The Guardians Council is expected to announce the final list of approved presidential candidates on May 21. Council member Ayatollah Mohammad Momen has suggested that the body might approve more than 10 of the 686 individuals who registered to run in the June 14 vote.

The 78-year-old Rafsanjani has come under fire by hard-liners over his criticism of the 2009 postelection crackdown.

--Golnaz Esfandiari

Is Iran’s presidential hopeful Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf a hard-liner or a moderate? It depends on his audience, apparently.

Recordings of two starkly different accounts given by Qalibaf of his role in the crackdown against protests have emerged online.

One recording was allegedly made at a meeting Qalibaf is said to have held a few weeks ago with hard-line Basij students.

In it Qalibaf, Tehran's mayor and a former Revolutionary Guards air force commander, appears to take credit for cracking down on Iran’s student movement. He says he personally beat up students with batons in the 1999 crackdown in Tehran and obtained permission from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council to shoot at student protesters in 2003. The Basij forces in recent years have been accused of being actively involved in repressive measures against students.

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Yet, a few weeks later, in another meeting with students at Tehran’s Sharif University, Qalibaf had a very different account of the same 2003 event: He said he received the order to shoot at students but refused to do so.

Qalibaf's contradictory accounts appear to be part of an attempt to appeal to voters from different sides of the political spectrum as the June 14 presidential election approaches.

Burnish His Credentials

The 51-year-old Qalibaf is a member of the so-called Coalition of Three conservative presidential hopefuls loyal to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Analysts say that by highlighting his role in the crackdown, Qalibaf is seeking to burnish his conservative credentials and win the approval of Khamenei and his powerful hard-line allies, who are believed to be more inclined to support nuclear negotiator Said Jalili in next month’s vote.
In his meeting with Basij students, Qalibaf allegedly talks about the crackdowns in 1999, 2003, and in 2009, after the last presidential election.

Of the 2003 student protests, Qalibaf, who was then national police chief, claimed that by making harsh statements and intimidating members of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, he managed to obtain permission to shoot at student protesters.  

“In that meeting, through my behavior, I was able to get permission from the country’s security council for the police forces to have a military presence at the university dorm and shoot [at protesters],” he said.

But speaking on May 13 to students at Sharif University, one of the centers of student activism, Qalibaf said others had issued the shooting order, while he had refused to enforce it.  

“I was the commander of the police forces during the events of 2003 that happened because of the anniversary of the 18 Tir incident (the 1999 student protests). Then, at a meeting of the Supreme National Security Council, the reformists issued an order that the police force which I headed had the right to shoot and enter the university dormitory. But I didn’t do that,” he says.

Confident Of Authenticity

The transcript of Qalibaf’s alleged comments with Basij students was first released by the opposition website Kalame after Qalibaf accused the reformist government of then-President Mohammad Khatami of having issued the order to attack students in 2003.

Kalame reported that Qalibaf’s meeting with Basij members was held privately. The meeting with Sharif University students was public.

The apparent audio of Qalibaf’s meeting with Basij students was later released online by several sources, including the U.S.-based International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran.

Hadi Ghaemi, the campaign's executive director, told RFE/RL that his group is confident about the authenticity of the audio recording.

Ghaemi says the recording exposes Qalibaf as a violent politician. His group has called on the European Union and the United States to add Qalibaf to their list of sanctioned human rights violators.

"I think for the past 12 years he’s been trying to give the image of a kind, moderate leader, but indeed he is one of the leading agents of repression in Iran," Ghaemi says. "What he refers to in that tape is very clear. He even claims there are photographs of him committing those acts in the streets, beating up protesters. He even refers to people who can [verify this]."

'Not A Single Bullet'

Qalibaf has been silent about the controversy. But his campaign spokesman Parviz Esmaili told the semiofficial Mehr news agency that during Qalibaf’s tenure as national police chief “not a single bullet” was fired on university campuses. He accused Iran’s enemies of conducting a psychological war in the run-up to the election.

The recording in which Qalibaf claims he had a key role in state repression has led to anger on social media websites. Some say he showed his true face, while others say he is merely trying to please Khamenei, who has the last say in all state affairs in the Islamic republic.

“Mr. Qalibaf, flattering Khamenei will not take you far. Look at Ahmadinejad," wrote one user on Facebook, in a reference to the current Iranian president who fell out of favor with the supreme leader.